The Russian Federation is deploying nuclear submarines in the Arctic, which is gaining new strategic importance for major powers, including the United States and China. He writes about the economic and geopolitical component of the Arctic for big players Bloomberg
A Russian submarine sails through a fjord in Norway next to a British amphibious transport ship while F-35 fighter jets roar overhead. NATO forces are gathering for joint exercises to repel a simulated invasion.
Putin's war in Ukraine may be raging thousands of kilometers to the south, but in the remote Arctic, his military activities are being watched closely. It is an increasingly important region for energy, trade and security, where Russia, the US, China and others are vying for greater control.
The extent of Arctic seabed resources is poorly mapped, but the region is estimated to hold about one-quarter of the world's oil and natural gas resources. And logistics will be faster by the week than traditional commercial shipping routes.
Russia maintains nuclear-capable attack submarines stationed in the Arctic, and they may become more important as Putin eventually seeks to rebuild a military that has been badly depleted by the war in Ukraine.
At the heart of the exercises is the feeling that, regardless of what happens in Ukraine, NATO countries are determined for a long-term confrontation with Russia.
"We are dealing with a nation that has demonstrated both the willingness and the ability to use military force in an aggressive manner," said Rear Admiral Rune Andersen, commander in chief of the Royal Norwegian Navy. "That means we have to look ahead and be ready to deter any such action against any NATO country — that applies to this region, but also the Baltics and other parts of NATO territory."
More than 20 troops from the UK, US, Netherlands and six other countries are braving temperatures below 000C, ice and heavy snow to help Norway, which faces a limited invasion from the north in the fictional war game. The 20-day exercise trains forces to survive and work in remote areas of the Arctic.
With Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, seven of the eight Arctic countries will become NATO members. This means greater collective air, sea and artillery power, as well as territory with a network of railways to transport troops and equipment in the event of conflict.
This united front could also serve to fuel the Kremlin's narrative that NATO is seeking to encircle it, and encourage Russia to build up its military presence there — if the war in Ukraine allows it.
"If Russia wants to be a great power, if Russia wants to have a reliable nuclear deterrent, if Russia wants to control security in Northern Europe and also in the Arctic, it needs to have a very strong military position in the Arctic," said Andreas Oosthagen, a senior research fellow Fritjof Nansen Institute in Norway.
Of particular interest is the so-called Greenland-Iceland-Great Britain gap, through which Russian ships must pass in order to enter the Atlantic Ocean. Once there, Putin's forces could potentially violate commercial shipping regulations or block US military supply lines to send reinforcements to Europe. Sabotage of undersea transatlantic data cables can also cause great damage.
Putin appears to want to maintain Russia's presence in the Arctic, and in recent years he has restored old Soviet-era military bases and built new ones. About two-thirds of Russia's nuclear-powered ships, including ballistic missile submarines and nuclear attack submarines, are assigned to the Northern Fleet, which is based on the region's Kola Peninsula.
The shortest route to North America from Russia still lies over the top of the planet, and Moscow's new hypersonic missiles will require near-instant response times from North American defense systems that are being upgraded, military experts say.
Last year, the Russian president unveiled a new maritime strategy, pledging to protect Arctic waters by "all means," including the use of hypersonic Zircon missile systems. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced plans to transfer about 500 modern weapons systems to Russia's Arctic forces and provide full radar coverage of Arctic airspace, although it is unclear whether these goals will be met in 2022.
According to Rebecca Pincus, director of the Wilson Center's Polar Institute, Russia, like other countries, is focused on protecting its strategic assets in the Arctic and preserving its economic interests in the region. Moscow wants to protect its northern trade routes and gain access to new fossil fuels and rare-earth metal deposits as Arctic ice melts rapidly due to climate change.
"Part of that plan was to create the ability to secure, monitor and control all this new traffic that they're bringing in and all these resources that they want to develop," Pincus said. "So the Russian impulse to build up military potential in the Russian Arctic makes sense."
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world. Longer ice-free periods mean increased maritime traffic and potentially easier access to natural resources. According to the United States Geological Survey, about 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 1670 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered gas may lie inside the Arctic Circle, along with metals and minerals needed for electrification.
Last summer, both of the main shipping routes through the Arctic — Russia's Northern Sea Route and Canada's Northwest Passage — were virtually ice-free all season. Climate scientists are now predicting that by mid-century the North Pole could be completely free of ice, opening up a third trans-Arctic shipping route through international waters. It is considered key to China's Arctic strategy, which includes the Polar Silk Road connecting East Asia, Western Europe and North America.
China, which has touted its "borderless" partnership with Russia, declared itself a "sub-Arctic state" in 2018. In addition to its fishing, energy and transportation interests, China operates research stations in Norway and Iceland, and has pledged to expand cooperation with Russia in the Arctic. Another confirmation of China's interests in the Arctic is a reconnaissance balloon that recently entered US airspace over Alaska and was shot down by US troops over South Carolina.
Economic factors may still hold Russia back from conflict in the Arctic, however, the proximity of the Russian military to NATO is inherently dangerous. NATO has strengthened its own presence in the region, with military exercises and the opening of a command in Norfolk, Virginia, in 2021 tasked with monitoring the Atlantic and the High North, which includes areas both inside and outside the Arctic Circle.
In comments to the Globe and Mail that coincided with a visit to Canada last August, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned about China's Arctic ambitions and Russia's growing military presence in the region. "Russia's ability to impede Allied reinforcements in the North Atlantic is a strategic challenge for the Alliance," he said.
Maritime experts say Russia's advanced submarines pose one of the alliance's biggest challenges in the Arctic, in part because they are so difficult to detect. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Russian Navy commands approximately 58 ships, 11 of which are strategic nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. This compares to approximately 64 U.S. submarines, 14 of which carry ballistic missiles.
The submarine capability is an area where Russia can "pose a sort of asymmetric threat against a more powerful Western alliance," said Andersen of the Norwegian Navy.
"The threat of an unlocated Russian submarine passing through the GIUK gap from the north is a major concern for NATO allies and requires close coordination and cooperation within the alliance," said Walter Burbrick, associate professor at the US War College, director of the Arctic Research Group.
NATO responded by increasing underwater surveillance of the North Atlantic using underwater sonar and maritime aerial patrols. This is an area where Finland and Sweden will be able to assist allies by monitoring and sharing intelligence, as well as providing vital air support.
Scandinavia will have about 250 fighter jets, including 150 F-35s, said Norwegian Col. Eirik Guldvog, commander of the 133rd Air Wing at Elvenes Air Force Base, north of the Arctic Circle in Norway. According to the World Catalog of Modern Military Aircraft, this compares to approximately 900 fighters for the Russian Air Force.
The importance of this was highlighted last week. As NATO exercises continued, officials in Germany scrambled two F-35s to Elvenes after radar detected unidentified objects to the north. Within an hour, the planes returned after carefully inspecting two Russian Il-38 planes flying in international airspace.
According to Guldvog, this happens about once a week, and the planes are always Russian, as their Air Force seeks to get information in the Arctic about other countries.
The Guldvog station has the most interceptions each year, "because Russia has to move north of Norway and along our coast to get to the Atlantic," he said.
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