Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are already in the first reading considered the state budget of Ukraine for 2025. The main financial document of the country already has more than two thousand amendments and provides for a fixed exchange rate of the dollar at the level of 45 hryvnias.
About the incomes and expenses that the Budget-2025 hides, to the publication News.LIVE said the head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations of ONU named after . I.I. Mechnikova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor Serhiy Yakubovskyi.
Next year's budget, like last year's, cuts defense spending at a time when full-scale war is underway. Currently, the main financial decisions in Ukraine are made based on aid calculations from international partners, most of which will be directed specifically to the army: "We already thought that victory would come this year. And she is not there. But the budget lost more than 600 billion, due to which defense spending had to be cut. I also see the same for next year, because here even less was allocated for defense than before.", — says Serhiy Yakubovskyi.
At the same time, the expert notes that the document under consideration is not yet final — it will have quite a few amendments. Therefore, deputies should take into account all wishes and comments: "We should be shown the real budget. Because it is impossible to find money today and have drones or other weapons tomorrow. Everything must be planned well in advance - then there will be no problems, which we have already encountered, that by the end of the year there is almost no money left. And the effectiveness of such a budget is low".
Also, one of the most important items in the budget is the article on expenses and income, where the former will almost double the latter.
This deficit is planned to be covered by attracting funds from EU countries and the USA. However, Mr. Jakubovsky emphasizes that we should not expect this help now - first we need to wait for the results of the presidential elections in the United States: "I would not comment on anything in general until November 5. Because the draft budget includes a deficit in the amount of 1 trillion 600 billion UAH, which is about 20% of GDP. And this is the first budget when such a large number of expenses will be covered by foreign aid. And the amount is really significant. And if Harris does not win, then the question of where to get these funds will be open.".
So, as Yakubovsky emphasizes, it is not known how Trump's victory will turn out for Ukraine's economy, because he may stop funding the army. And Europe, Canada and Japan alone will not meet the needs of our country: "If the war continues throughout 2025, I doubt that there will be allies who will cover our deficit, because another 500-600 billion will be needed. Such an amount is quite difficult to find and ask for abroad".
Dollar exchange rate
Regarding the devaluation of the hryvnia and the level of inflation, the economist predicts an increase in prices by at least 10%: "If Harris wins in Shatakh, we will keep the dollar at 45 hryvnias. If Trump — then 60-70 hryvnias. And it will already be quite difficult and will provoke even greater inflation.".
The expert adds that by the end of 2025, Ukraine may well reach a dollar rate of 50 hryvnias. And this will be a perfectly acceptable course.
Tax increase
Next year, the government plans to increase the percentage of the military levy again, this time by three times - these are the norms prescribed in the next year's budget. According to the economist, these funds should go to the country's defense capability, but they will amount to only 10% of the required amount: "To finance the army, we need to have an additional 500 billion, and from the increase in taxes we will get only 45-50. The other 90% will be the support of partners. So they don't help the budget much, but they will hit the business hard.".
The second reading of the 2025 Budget is scheduled for November 20. But deputies must consider all amendments and comments to it.
