Actual consumer inflation in August is expected to have accelerated to 7,5% in annual terms. One of the main factors of its growth was the acceleration of food inflation due to the reduction of supply due to drought. It is reported Macroeconomic and monetary review NBU (October 2024).
According to the NBU's estimates, inflation also increased in September. According to the released schedule, annual inflation accelerated to around 8,0%.
As noted in the NBU, fundamental inflationary pressure also increased in August. Core inflation increased to 6,5% y/y from 5,7% y/y in July. Such dynamics were ahead of the trajectory of the NBU's July forecast, primarily as a result of the rapid increase in prices for processed food products due to the secondary effects of the rise in the price of raw materials and the increase in production costs, in particular for energy supply and salaries.
However, inflation expectations generally remained stable.
Prices for products
In August, food inflation accelerated sharply due to a recovery in the price of raw products against the background of a reduction in the supply of food products due to adverse weather conditions. The prices of processed food products also grew faster, both due to the increase in the price of food raw materials and the further increase in the costs of enterprises for energy supply and labor wages, the NBU review says.
Prices for non-food goods and services
According to the NBU, the price of most non-food products rose faster, primarily under the influence of the exchange rate factor. On the other hand, the prices of clothes and shoes decreased faster, probably due to the increase in competition between imported and Ukrainian-made products. The rate of increase in the prices of services accelerated somewhat under the pressure of business production costs.
Fuel price growth moderated in August amid ample fuel inventories and lower-than-expected oil prices on global markets.
Administratively regulated prices
Prices for alcoholic beverages decreased more and more slowly. The increase in the price of tobacco products slowed down somewhat, but their prices grew at a fairly high rate, including under the influence of the fight against shady products. In addition, the growth of prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment accelerated, probably due to the exchange rate factor, the review says.
As before, inflation was restrained by a moratorium on tariff increases for certain housing and communal services for the population.
According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 2024% in August 0,6. Annual inflation accelerated to 7,5%. Annual inflation was higher only in August last year (8,6%).
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine lowered its forecast for inflation in 2024 to 8,5% from 8,2%. The NBU expects general inflation in Ukraine to accelerate over the next three quarters.
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